1KWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye posits #stock are 20% overvalued given the 5% discount rate -> seeing this in earnings #mastercard and #carnival both accelerating earnings, but not rewarded post. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. See new Tweetschristopher joye on Twitter: "RT @eurekareport: On Talking Finance this week with @AlanKohler: central banks face a longer, harder task to get inflation down; dodging an Australian recession; an inflationary budget & opposition in the opposition ft. This is 70s. 9:35 PM · Aug 9, 2022 · Twitter Web App. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 18 Jul 2023 02:09:39. Replying to. 2B cash! @cjoye Aussie house prices now correcting fast as rates rise, led by Sydney and Melbourne: RBA will struggle to lift past 1. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. “The RBA is hierarchical, insular, supercilious, hubristic, resistant to outside influence, and exceptionally slow to recognise and respond to its own mistakes. Ave wage vs ave savings vs ave mortgage debt does not compute in my mind-who can afford a $600k mortgage at 7% without it destroying monthly income?”“@cjoye See through the noise with China - they are in population decline as Poor Japan v2. @cjoye @PodcastFear. And inflation isn't coming down anytime soon with rents increasing Rate cuts in 2023 will simply shoot inflation back up. ” christopher joye on Twitter: "Good morning!" / Twitter. non-bank wholesale funding costs? Seems like there is further upward pressure from o/s debt markets coming here which could even further exarcebate the fixed to variable, and those currently on variable. In this conversation. 7%. Wonderfully cherry picked data in desperation to keep credibility of the narrative that allows them to be. Aussie house prices fell in 2022 by their largest margin since records began in 1980. 6 billion Snowy Hydro…We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. Grrrr”“@cjoye Thoughts on bank and esp. ALT. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1%; Brisbane prices down 0. 1:24 AM · Jul 9, 2023 · 10. 7% on 376 auctions (@corelogicau) vs 49. com. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . The business indicators measure of wages suggests annual growth in non-farm hourly earnings picked up to 5% in Q1, although this series has grown more strongly than the RBA’s series over the past year. The wage costs for businesses producing products is far too high and can only be addressed by greater productivity, which means fewer workers. 6%; 5 city index prices down 1. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @parrapower2022 @solo_dio_ @rabbit_wealth @AvidCommentator @BikoKonstantin1 @Aus__Property @rabbit_wealth @justthink1 @cjoye . 2 days ago. 10% in more pain for borrowers and home owners. “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. 1%, declining at a 17% annual rate, while Brisbane prices fall at 20% annual rate bit. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1%. Hard to start a business or buy your first home if you can’t borrow money anywhere”“Aussie house prices moving sideways in February month to date, which is interesting. ”“@Fuffalufaguz @cjoye I bought at top 23 year old fixed rate 14 percent price tanked was in negative equity for 10 years house needed totally renovated sold for same price after all interest bills and pound bought nearly half what it would everyone is conned by media having to have what everyone has”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “India is an important ally that can’t be trusted Replying to @cjoye Usecases for blockchain are only limited by the imagination. See new Tweets. afr. 2:58 AM · Jun 30, 2023. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Interesting to see Treasurer Jim Chalmers trying to directly jawbone the RBA into not hiking by arguing that the inflation result does not meet the "material" upside surprise test Bullock set - despite every economist and the market saying it does. “Good morning!” In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign up“@JohnQuiggin @cjoye We're here because Reagan & Thatcher's neoliberal agenda of crushing unions by offshoring manufacturing to China (& continued by Clinton & Blair) . Quote Tweet. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower of cost of capital than normal debt instruments without an ESG label. ALT. May 2. christopher joye on Twitter. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Visit cjoye's profile on Zillow to find ratings and reviews. We now expect Australia's #housing prices to fall nearly 20%, before a modest recovery in 2024 as mortgage rates fall. christopher [email protected] @DrCameronMurray: Has anyone pulled together a list of all the wrong predictions about the housing market from mid-2020? If I recall, predictions of 30% price falls were common. 0%), Melbourne (-7. OAKVILLE, ON — September 1, 2022 — Today marks the start of a new chapter for JOY RADIO (CJYE) as it unveils not only a new look, but a new feel to their. @cjoye The monthly CPI showed underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high, tracking above the RBA’s forecast profile and placing pressure on the RBA to hike again in July, where its peers are confronting the same problem of it taking too long for inflation to return to target with much higher interest rates. @cjoye Sydney house prices have fallen 11. A controversial article by Christopher Joye, an outspoken investment portfolio manager and columnist for the Australian Financial Review, has. 7% in July; Melbourne prices down 1. “@cjoye Mate, what's the go with this fund you run? You are doing a terrible job managing other people's money! By the way, #bitcoin was trading around $8. Sign upIn this conversation. See new TweetsNothing like purposely using a log graph to make it look like it has barely crashed everMassive downside miss for Aussie monthly inflation - RBA should pause and if they hike in December they will struggle to do much more. Both of which disproportionately affect the bottom 50% of households. So presumably brought their first home. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “House price crash update: Syd prices down 6. Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. 5% pa, or 2. 04 May 2023 06:47:40Log in. @cjoye Cracking interview with the great Tom Piotrowski on equities, bonds, house prices, banks and pretty much everything under the sun - notably recorded before the RBA kicked off its second hiking cycle… @cjoye A tiny, single day drop in Aussie house prices evidenced in the CoreLogic daily data---is it pure noise or something more substantive as tighter policy grips? corelogic. In this conversation. . 6 billion Snowy Hydro… We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. It'll work right up until the point it is discovered that debt outstrips M2 money by a factor of 10:1 . Replying to @cjoye @Harold36089778. I'm often asked how much time/effort it takes to write an AFR column. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye on Twitter. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 2%. . Show more". Embarrassingly wrong. Key takeaways * 15-20% peak to trough in Australian housing prices remains the view. This will. Aussie housing collapse spreads as Brisbane joins the Sydney and Melbourne crash bit. . @cjoye Cracking interview with the great Tom Piotrowski on equities, bonds, house prices, banks and pretty much everything under the sun - notably recorded before the RBA kicked off its second hiking cycle…CoreLogic is the leading property data, information, analytics and services provider in Australia and New Zealand with growing partnerships throughout Asia. 1 – weakest reading since the depths of the early-1990s recession, Hassan said. “The “family finances vs a year ago” sub-index dropped 8% in February, to 62. 4% this time last yr. . “@cjoye It seems a bit silly to me that an actor, doing an advert, with a script, on the television, should suddenly become a financial commentator on cryptocurrencies. House price declines not likely to slow until RBA stops hiking. Why are they silent on the stock NFLX performance???”“Westpac/MI Australian Consumer Confidence now lower than GFC levels--and aside from March 2020, the lowest since 1990. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. 16 May 2023 00:02:27“Aussie house prices fall another >1% in November, total loss now 7. GS have published research on what Australia's inflation rate looks like using the new monthly data, crucially excluding items the ABS does not collect information on (and imputes to have no change). Strong academic credentials, but limited real world experience. Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. In this conversation. “@BruceMeaney @cjoye I don’t know if it’s good. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users The data always tells a story and sticky inflation makes it impossible to see an upside with House prices til Q1 maybe even Q2 2024 Bear market like the 1 we are in. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. A $14m unsecured loan will cover the client loss, creating a $32m debt for Huobi Like I said before: there will be unpredictable fall out from FTX in. 13 Jun 2023 05:35:09“RT @rogerkermode: I reckon there are two generations of ‘finance dudes’ who have never seen high inflation and cannot comprehend the fear i…”christopher joye on Twitter: "RBA now on track to hike rates in June given upside surprise to today's inflation, lifting the cash rate from 3. There were good reasons for very low rates (pre-covid) and those reasons haven’t gone away. au. . . No wonder RBA is slowing down. 5%. It would not suprise me if the government introduces 'targeted support' which ends up pumping the market for a…”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Property is ‘sleepwalking’ towards its biggest test since the GFC. commodities are a grand idea #BTC“Aussie house price losses exceed 10%, Sydney losses breach 14%: 43 year record in sight 'Stablecoin' Breaks Peg As Circle Admits Billions Stuck With SVB up. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye. According to your own chart the annualized figure for Sydney is approx 11-12%. Found. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upSee new Tweets. @cjoye. 3%, Melbourne/Brissie both down 6. Since first RBA May hike, Syd/national market has fallen at 23%/14% annualised pace. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log in. ”Log in. Retweets. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22@cjoye. 9% vs 56. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We await policy details to review our outlook". Stock up 18%. au. Funny thing is many keep saying it hasn't crashed yet. . This is deflationary. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 2%. House prices fell at slightly slower rate in Oct, with 5 city index from @corelogicau losing 1. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Like. Replying to. ly/3tKymvn 8:25 PM · Nov 21, 2022 · Twitter Web App@cjoye Aussie house price update to 25 July: Sydney prices down 1. It’s like the economy has cancer and our doctors wants to stop treatment caus we’re feeling nauseous from the chemo 🤦♂️ @cjoye True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. Sydney prices have fallen by 11. macrobusiness. This will be record housing crash, 100% triggered by rate hikes - it has only just started. . “GS: Australian capital-city dwelling prices rose +0. 7%; Brisb off 1. It. 92. 1. I believe this includes offset accounts. Someone did the math on how the housing ponzi affects this generation compared to the days of old. Last Friday was a normal day for us: we did about $450m of trades, and I actively directed ~$300m of them. “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. . ”“With an inflation-targeting central bank, cash is actually one of your best inflation hedges”See new Tweets. Try and think of the whole story not the macro people want you to hear and fear”In this conversation. Quote Tweet. Log in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Retweets. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . They all have movies on Netflix, and Netflix is down 80%. “@TvcMike @cjoye tech/growth/risk assets, makes any real sense. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. 6%; 5 city index prices down 1. 75% bonds or 5,6% annuity products without losing any skin to the middleman, market would be below 4,000 point instantly! Once BoJ st“Mortgage stress to rise as RBA flags risk of higher rates in. @cjoye. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. See new Tweets Nothing like purposely using a log graph to make it look like it has barely crashed ever Massive downside miss for Aussie monthly inflation - RBA should pause and if they hike in December they will struggle to do much more. 5% plus 1% productivity. com. Our subs will likely need to contain the most serious expansionist ambitions of an India we haven't yet met in the 2040s”“Huge jump in Sydney auction clearance rate to 74. Sign up Day of valuations reckoning looms for commercial real estate owners, valuers and auditors. 50% in 2019 to 0. ”“Yep. Plus ,Bitcoin and Ethereum are down less than tech stocks. This will in turn demand radical attitudinal change. afr. By Huobi announced $18. First miss on EPS since IPO, I think. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Some areas down -25. Your chart is pretty much 12 months already. 1%, declining at a 17% annual rate, while Brisbane prices fall at 20% annual rate bit. Drone pilot Christopher Joye, who captured the footage, said: "Swimmers would not believe there was a. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. It’s like the economy has cancer and our doctors wants to stop treatment caus. NSW's interest bill will surge past $7 billion/yr according to Treasurer @dmookheyMLC. ConversationSee new Tweets. When the cryptobros realise the startup founders need to cash in their crypto investments because SVB is experiencing a bank run. . “@cjoye Chris, you do realise that we have 30,000 arrivals per month, when in April we only started 2500 new dwellings? There are people coming from overseas using foreign currency to rent or buy property with currency that has appreciated against the Aud by 15% in the past six months. Both are inflationary to housing and do nothing to address affordability. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 13 Jun 2023 05:35:09 “RT @rogerkermode: I reckon there are two generations of ‘finance dudes’ who have never seen high inflation and cannot comprehend the fear i…” christopher joye on Twitter: "RBA now on track to hike rates in June given upside surprise to today's inflation, lifting the cash rate from 3. 6pc. 25pc and possibly beyond, also raising risk RBA hikes past 3. ”While lots of people talk about the risk of war without actually understanding the odds, new research sheds light on the probability of major power conflict. new Tweets. 3. 4% followed by Brisbane (-8. Log in. 10:21 PM · Jul 8, 2022 · Twitter for iPhone. Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" - MacroBusiness. 4%. Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" According to CoreLogic records dating back to 1980, Australian dwelling values have never fallen by more than 11% across the combined. While all costs (interest, rates, land tax, utility, body corp, maintenance) are against investors, 2m deposit gives u 100k effortless money. “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. and @Johnkehoe23. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. What’s the result?”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. These people need equity Plenty of people get paid goid money a d know very little of what they do The lesson is the herd mentality is alive and well On the way uo! All the way down Probability market crash epic proportions Going to be like the car market but even more acute We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Australian money is rushing out of the crypto exchange, and customers are willing to accept a big haircut to cash out their holdings. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye After some cajoling, I’ve dusted off my double barrel shottie and have agreed to track, hunt and eliminate the biggest housing bull of them all: @TheKouk @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log inchristopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower. @cjoye RBA speech just published: almost 30% of Aussie borrowers will suffer a more than 40% increase in their mortgage repayments if the RBA lifts the cash rate by 300 basis points, though concludes everything will be ok in that event. This will be record housing crash, 100% triggered by rate hikes -. 2m are customer assets. 1. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye, @masters_joanne, @ImpactEconAU & @markgkenny. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 76% from 0. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. The real problem, people still spending and employment strong. The stunning incident occurred in the waters off Werri Beach in New South Wales on Sunday and was captured on video. christopher joye on Twitter. @Dante57112893. christopher joye on Twitter: "A property I heard about was. Games fiasco will leave business shaking its head at Victorian farce. Don’t know anyone else that predicted that. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersLog in. Likes. . In this conversation. 5k USD when you started this fund in May 2020. @TheKouk · Jul 8. I still haven’t seen you clearly outline why rates will stay high over the medium to long term, when nothing has fundamentally permanently changed since 2019. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Huobi announced $18. Sign up“@cjoye People keep in mind the huge upswing the housing market had pre covid. We now expect Australia's #housing prices to fall nearly 20%, before a modest recovery in 2024 as mortgage rates fall. )”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Victoria's annual interest bill on its debt will rise towards $9 billion/yr by 2027 according to CBA analysis. 9:26 PM · Aug 15, 2022 · Twitter Web App. Forecast looks good. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). Aug 16. May 15, 2023 - 9:29AM. However, the. Likes. Log in. 7% in 11 days of Aug); Melb down 3. “Aussie house price crash about to pass through all-time record of an 11% peak-to-trough loss. So how does this effect them? I would have thought ppl who regularly buy/sell homes or were looking to cash out for retirement would be more affected?”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. afr. “Good morning!”In this conversation. “@cjoye Sir. what you choose? We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. You've reached your limit when it comes to tweeting about bitcoin being under $20k. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users Aussie house prices are continuing to fall at a very rapid pace in December based on early data from We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Replying to . . 1. There were good re“@Sporticus13 @cjoye @TheKouk I was wondering the other day how much of Wayne Swan’s unfulfilled budget surplus was the result of Koukie’s crystal ball. Conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Found. First time I've properly suited up in a long while. Prepare for equities and property pain. Prepare for equities and property pain - my analysis. “Super strong US employment data will embolden Fed to push to 5. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “ANZ's David Plank and Jack Chambers have today updated their RBA QE3 forecast to a potential program that could be as large as $189 billion, bringing them in line with Westpac's Bill Evans who is projecting a $150bn program for QE3 @Johnkehoe23 @ANZ_Newsroom @WestpacMacro”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Drone operator Christopher Joye posted. christopher joye on Twitter: "Credit Suisse trying to squeeze. christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. It’s funny because traders on the street know that on Friday mornings, I will be buried in one. “First housing bear in my cross-hairs: UBS concedes yesterday, "Looking fwd, we had expected home prices could drop 10%, but it could be smaller now. Replying to . 8%mom in March, the first monthly increase since April 2022 and the largest monthly increase since January 2022. ConversationSee new Tweets. 0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes. The quarterly pace of decline accelerated to. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upLog in. 11. Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. Redirecting to /cjoye/status/1675386755422494722Embed Tweet. 8:58 PM · Oct 5, 2022 · Twitter Web App. . 7%. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . & 50% are admin. Sydney house prices plummet like it's 1983 - MacroBusiness. Captain Slapstick AC AO AM OAM AK @CaptSlapstick · 6h. @cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. S&P Reports Australian Home Loan Arrears Rose In December: S&P's Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages increased in December to 0. Especially as pandemic funding measures end”House prices to get whacked by rates again: If the cash rate does indeed hit 4. Don’t know anyone else that predicted that. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Immigrants need groceries, cars, bank accounts, etc”“Westpac data shows that exactly 50% of all borrowers are less than one month ahead on their mortgage repayments, or behind. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In this conversation. Bank of M&D or other exogenous injections can only go so far. 65% in November. Log in. Bang on our forecast for 15-25% cumulative loss. A $14m unsecured loan will cover the client loss, creating a $32m debt for Huobi Like I said before: there will be unpredictable fall out from FTX in the following weeks. Where did you get 20% from?”RBA governor Phil Lowe said today that for Aussie inflation to hit its 2-3% target, wages can only grow at circa 3. 1% in 2020 drove Aussie houses prices 37% higher. Binance Australia selling bitcoin $6k cheaper than other exchanges. 85% to 4. See charts below for the latest daily index data for Syd/Melb @cjoye banks are throwing everything to keep the arrears off the books, giving repayment holidays, turning loans into 30-40 year mortgages interest free, & CBA anyone ahead on their loan schedule are getting repayment discounts! @cjoye I think you’re missing a factor from your interest rate property price calculator, how many investors were using a rising market to facilitate/service their loans, buy new properties& hide some properties under company trusts to hide their debt positions. 3. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye on Twitter. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@cjoye plenty of illiquidity in the big super funds non-listed assets. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). @cjoye was one of the few to go against this IIRC. Binance Australia selling bitcoin $6k cheaper than other exchanges. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. I doubt the rise over the previous Q was sustainable, given the reduction in borrowing power. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersAussie house prices are continuing to fall at a very rapid pace in December based on early data fromWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye. This will in turn demand radical attitudinal change from entitled millennials who have never experienced high…. . . @cjoye Aug 6, 2022 22pc and back in 2020 - the issue with Ukraine is there is very limited data on it as a country statistically because it was only created in the early 1990s. afr. Fantastic lunch event with Chris Joye @cjoye and Coolibah Capital today in Perth. It’s funny because traders on the street know that on Friday. @cjoye yep, thats the point. “Real interest rate hammer has yet to fall would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. And homes are still priced above Covid levels. 8 per cent, it would mean that purchasing power has been eroded by a total of 33 per cent since the RBA kicked off this cycle in May last year. …”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us.